Monte Carlo Uncertainty Anal. of Load Profiles when Assessing CCHP Feasibility

CIBSE Technical Symposium, DeMontfort University, Leicester UK
6th and 7th September 2011

Problem: Load Profile Uncertainty and CCHP Viability
Uncertainty exists in building energy load profiles, and is greatest in the early design stages when concept designs are being associated with the ultimate system performance.
Uncertainty in the load profiles may effect the economic viability of a CCHP installation as it may result incorrectly sized or poorly selected equipment operating inefficiently or worse, not being used at all.
Clients are asked to make large capital investments in equipment with no guidance on the risks and uncertainties associated with the ultimate system performance.
The level of uncertainty varies widely with project type, but with particular challenge is a shell and core development where the final tenants are unknown.