Understanding Future Climate Data from UKCP09 for Weather Data Selection

Session 11 Paper 4, CIBSE ASHRAE Technical Symposium, Imperial College, London, UK
18th and 19th April 2012

The changing weather and climate will affect the performance of our existing and new buildings. This paper shows how the UKCP09 climate projections can be communicated concisely in probabilistic climate profile (ProCliP) graphs that plot individual climate variables in UK locations. ProCliPs can be used to consider the sensitivity of the future climate to the parameters of location, time period, emissions scenarios and probability level. Furthermore because of the close relationship and common parameters between climate and weather datasets derived from UKCP09, these observations can be used to help choose weather data, including the forthcoming CIBSE future weather files. The paper suggests a methodology using the graphs and other project considerations. The graphs and methodology have potential application in client discussions, early stage design, and the development of procedures for building performance simulation with a changing climate.

The project is a Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) between the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) and UKCIP (a University of Oxford programme) and is jointly funded by CIBSE, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Technology Strategy Board (TSB).