Talk title: Edinburgh Update: Heat Networks & LHEES
Speaker: Hilary Dooley and Hassan Waheed, City of Edinburgh Council and Turner & Townsend
Event: CIBSE Scotland Conference 2026: Heating the Future, 27 May 2026
Video: https://youtu.be/ur1bKmoLZMo

[00:00] I'm very happy to see a lot of familiar faces in the crowd and also to be sharing the stage with hassan who I think we've been working together now on the l he's in edinburgh for three years or so and so we are sharing an act so I'll try and go quite quickly and this link here takes you to the edinburgh l he's in case you have insomnia and would like a long read and james touched on it earlier but essentially an l he's is a long-term spatial strategy for decarbonizing buildings and also improving the energy efficiency as sort of a contributing factor to fuel poverty and just poor energy

[01:00] Efficiency in general so we published our l he's in 2023 and it will be updated in five years which is sort of the standard set by james and the team so one of the main elements of the l he's is obviously that local heat section and in edinburgh and because of the demand and the density as well that means that we were looking at heat networks from the offset so our l he's and heat network zones are based on the methodology that was set by scottish government initially we had 17 zones and we have now reduced that number to 11 and we have been working with the l he's and heat network and with the help from turner and townsend and wsp we refined those down to 11 which we think represents better commercial opportunities and just by creating larger

[02:02] Zones with more demand but sort of reducing that total number of zones that it's sort of a more efficient means of covering the city so you'll see that we have 3.5 terawatt hours. So it is quite significant. And there are over 500 anchor loads within Edinburgh as well. So there's definitely good opportunity there. And so these are the zones here. The bottom zones represent our originals. And then sort of the one on the top is our more up-to-date prospective heat network zones. You can see they cover most of the same area. And that's because the heat demand hasn't necessarily changed. But we wanted to reflect those larger zones and larger opportunities. So there's lots of work to be done around heat networks in Edinburgh. We are waiting to formally designate our heat network zones in line with the statutory progress, which is in

[03:05] Development. And we're also working to present an optimal corporate delivery model that will help us make decisions going forward on how heat networks are brought forward in Edinburgh. We also have 11 communal heat network systems. They are built from 1960, ranging up to last year. So there is a sort of a range of technical and legislative projects.

[03:39] And then recently this year there have move嘉 us to figure out local and regional control for the외 depths. So we've also penciled small sectorX quê andjaw we hope to have a Mango rain so we, and I'm sorry, this isn't on here, but we've also been given funding from the 420 Commissioning Fund, which will help the City of Edinburgh Council, colleagues at Fife Council, East Lothian Council and the University of Edinburgh to really dig into the regulatory requirements for sea source heat pumps and to really understand this sort of checklist of regulation that you would need to go through to access heat from the sea and heat from the forth.

[04:42] And we're hoping to be able to share that sort of the outputs of that study in the late autumn as well. So we're very busy. And so this is just a range of the feasibility studies that we're looking at. And you can see in the bottom, it's right. And that's Gilmerton Community Centre, where we're looking at a ground source heat pump up in the top left.

[05:10] That is Inchview Care Home and Liberton Primary School, where we're looking at a feasibility study for either a shared air source heat pump or a shared ground source heat pump. And then the maps represent much larger opportunities where we are looking at a more district scale. And so we're looking at a more district scale heat network and the opportunities there.

[05:37] So I think it's been touched upon, but heat networks are quite difficult in this current time to bring forward beyond a feasibility stage. And so we've sort of come up with this idea that we're hacking heat networks because we need to put in additional effort to make these stack up. And so some of the things that we've been exploring are options. For commercial PPAs, unfortunately, we're not able to plunk a wind turbine in Leith, but it would make things a lot easier.

[06:12] And so we've been having lots of conversations with offshore wind developers, as well as companies that install large scale solar in other parts of Scotland and the UK. And looking at the cost of electricity and bringing that cost of electricity down, which we see. I think that's essential for bringing forward a viable heat network that is cost effective for potential customers.

[06:41] We're also very much involved in trying to build the stakeholder network around Edinburgh. So there's a lot of familiar faces here, and I have reached out to many of you for RFIs and very much appreciate you getting back to me, sometimes after a few nudges. I think in the resource scenario today, there's been huge emphasis on comprehensive looking through long term jobs, which actually, When I was talking to Senator so we're also investigating the effects of large-scale storage, which would allow us to participate in a flexible tariff set up, and we're also trying to understand the options for participating in the flexibility market as well.

[07:30] So or sorry, exploring and trying to hack to make these systems actually stack up. And I think Hassan will talk more on those. But essentially, we're trying to take forward feasibility studies now that there are very clear space for an energy center.

[07:56] It's very close to demand as well as a heat source. And then we are also modeling a small percentage of fossil fuel use for peaking and backup to sort of ensure that any potential project that gets to the next stage is actually going to be appealing to potential customers as well as council colleagues as well who have very tight budgets in terms of the operating of our commercial estate.

[08:28] So I'll hand over to Hassan. Thanks, Hilary. So Hilary mentioned all these hacks that we're trying to make heat networks work in Edinburgh. And I like to think of these as critical success factors. And today I wanted to kind of bring these out and generalize these a bit more so they can be applied in other contexts. So here these are as nine potential critical success factors for heat networks.

[08:59] And these are... Kind of factors which determine viability of whether a heat network can be developed or not. And I like to think of these as dials, nine individual dials. And all of these have specifics. So I've listed just about three for each, but there's way more behind and under each of these as layers. So if these dials are working against you, then it's unlikely that heat networks are viable.

[09:28] And even if one dial is against you, the entire process that's going to make these different types of changes to the heat network, it's going to probably make a heat network unviable. And if you have them all dialed in, they'll work for you. So just one example, we all understand the implications of having heat demand. So you need to have anchor loads close enough packed together. They need to have a large enough scale, and you need to have a certainty of that demand over years.

[09:56] So that complexity in those layers for each dial, traps and a lot of complexity. And here are three kind of key traps. Number one is there is no one right answer for any one of these dials. They all vary across different locations. So you could end up with, for instance, temperature requirements for a heat network in a new build development is very different from a heat network in an old part of town, which is supplying old leaky buildings with old distribution systems. So that's one major trap. The other one is that if you move one of these dials, it usually moves all of the others in unpredictable ways, whether it's positive or negative. So going for a new heat source might end up you having to think about new routing options, or it might change the proximity of your heat source and heat demand, or it might change the trust in your system as you introduce a new party into the system. So it ends up being a bit more like a rubric.

[10:54] Where, you know, if you make one turn, then it kind of messes up the whole system and you can't immediately get to the answer. You're going to have to kind of iterate through the system again and again and trying to hack heat networks and make that viable, as we're doing with Hilary. So the last key kind of trap is that this complex system is, unfortunately, as I've kind of viewed heat network opportunities being developed, way too many have not fully considered or appreciated the full scale and full challenge of all of these dials. So we've only really been able to open very narrow opportunities for heat networks, if any, in most contexts. So overall, the lesson is that we've done a lot of feasibility studies and business cases, and there's been a huge monumental effort by colleagues. But what's what sort of happened is a lot of times we found out the unfeasibility of heat networks and often too late.

[11:55] And that's had a real impact not only on energy wasted, but also we've not been able to identify the best potential opportunities or set up opportunities in the best possible way. So we've ended up in some instances with people playing a game of snakes and ladders where they're trying to make a run to the top with a heat network opportunity, but on the way, they find out too late about one thing or another, which is not working, I.e. A dial is not calibrated and they can't get it to work. So we've had a real impact not only on energy wasted, but also we've had other heckles and woofers with those situations where users start going to their Internet options and usually think of it as only getting bottom to bottom or doing what they want to do, but actually they kind of get bit and fall back into square one.

[12:37] So essentially, this is a visualization of the situation where on the left hand side you have the current state of play where there is a lot of misalignment and there is a very narrow window of opportunity for heat networks, if any. We're doing this via policy and other levers at a national level, but with two minutes to go, I don't have time to discuss that.

[13:02] So instead, I want to share a tool with you today, which can hopefully help you calibrate things slightly better and hopefully save you time, as well as create better opportunities for heat networks, as we're trying to do using the system in Edinburgh. So here it is. It's all nine dials packed together and a route through it.

[13:32] It's a bit manic, yes, but we'll start at one end and work our way through it. The trick here is to understand what value will work in your context, because I can't give you a value for any one of these dials. You're going to have to figure out what value works for you in your specific context. So starting from heat demand, we all know we require sufficient heat demand. So when you get that understanding of what your heat demand needs to be in that specific opportunity area, if it's not enough, stop, go back, reassess.

[14:08] But if it is enough, you can move on to understand whether the players in the system and the stakeholders trust each other and they are open to the opportunity of a heat network. If they're not, stop, go back, reassess. But if they're not, go back, reassess. But if they are, then you can move on to understand what heat source will be viable. Here things are a bit more complex. So if you have less electrons, if you're, for example, lucky enough to have an energy from waste facility or heat which is higher grade, you can probably move on.

[14:38] But if you don't, you're going to have to understand whether you can or can't hack your electricity situation. So if you can procure electricity, if you can't procure electricity, which is of a low cost. And you can't get the capex, opex down, you're going to have to stop there and go back and reassess. But if you can, you can move on to understand whether you can meet your temperature regime set out from your off-takers.

[15:06] And if that temperature regime is too high or too complex to meet, you're going to have to stop, go back and reassess. But if you can meet that opportunity, I'll stop there. But you get the idea that you're going to have to work through the system and understand. Whether or not it's going to take you through to the end. And if it does, you can go ahead and do a feasibility study.