Energy Consumption Prediction Models for the Retail Sector

CIBSE Technical Symposium, De Montfort University, Leicester UK
6th and 7th September 2011

The ability to analyse and accurately forecast future events is becoming increasingly important as most management decisions depend on them. This is especially evident for the retail sector, mainly because of the small margins that the sector is working within, alongside the increasing prices of electricity and gas. Tesco, as the market leader, wishes to be at the forefront of research and make a step change in their ability to forecast and reduce the energy consumption of their buildings.
This work presents the various benchmarking methods available in the UK, Europe and the US, including CIBSE TM46, ISA, and ASHRAE benchmarks. The mathematical techniques employed to access the predictions obtained using these benchmarking and forecasting methods are discussed as well as the analysis and forecasting methods used by the industry.
The research reported throughout this paper uses energy data obtained from the Tesco estate to draw correlations with weather, sales’ floor area, sales and other factors that might affect the energy consumption. Initial results regarding the effect these factors have on the energy consumption of buildings in them Tesco estate are presented.